McKinsey Mx energy
Created Wednesday 20 November 2024
McKinsey is a very important consultant firm from Washington, very close to power.
- In our cost-efficiency scenario, Mexico’s primary energy demand growth is expected to slow down, given the anticipated progress in energy efficiency and the electrification of critical industries (Exhibit 2). Mexico’s oil demand peaked in 2007, while coal demand peaked in 2011. Subsequently, we expect gas demand in the country to peak sometime around 2032, as calculated by the projected cost competitiveness of solar and wind power. We see new renewables growing at 7 percent per year and replacing fossil fuels faster after 2030.
- ...policies that slow the energy transition will have limited impact in the long term, as the fundamental economics of renewables eventually prevail regardless of short-term decisions. (Green energy is too cheap)
- To supply electricity at the most competitive cost, Mexico has two choices: emphasize the gasification of power or promote the faster adoption of renewable technologies. Based on the numbers alone, our Mexico energy perspective reference case reaches an obvious conclusion—pursue solar and wind renewable investments (Exhibit 3).
- Mexico is one of the world’s largest gas consumers and importers. And while the country currently consumes more natural gas than it produces, it benefits from access to some of the world’s cheapest gas imports from Texas, in addition to one of the world’s largest unconventional gas reserves. Mexico could invest in both sources to lower the cost of energy. In either case, the sector requires incentives for infrastructure development and supply-chain optimization.
Backlinks: Bullet Journal:Daily log:11 Nov:wk 04:US MX energy brief